Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
1-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
0-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
2-0
HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
Atletico Madrid 3-1 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid got the better of Athletic Bilbao 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 42% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 58%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.84 to 1.01.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.33 for Athletic Bilbao.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?
Atletico Madrid 3-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 46%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.