Boca Juniors 1-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
15%
5.75
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.22
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
18%
4.48
X/2
14%
6.62
X/X
16%
3.45
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
5.59
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.4pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.3pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 30%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.34/0.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.23/0.71
-8% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
12.0 Crosses 7.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.99 xG 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
294 Passes 355
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors LKU
20.09.2018 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro LKU
08.05.2008 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 0-2 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors LKU
30.04.2008 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
1-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.34 xG 0.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
298 Passes 299
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 5
24 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boca Juniors edged past Cruzeiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Boca Juniors found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 52% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 48%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 1.34 to 0.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Boca Juniors's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.75 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro?

Boca Juniors 1-0 Cruzeiro in the Copa Sudamericana on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 38%, draw 31%, Cruzeiro 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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