Libertad 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.13
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.15
X/1
26%
3.58
X/2
8%
9.65
X/X
14%
4.13
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
8%
8.83
2/X
6%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
55%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.1pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 21%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+10% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
12.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 2-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
21.10.2023 Libertad Libertad 3-0 HT 2-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
30.07.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
10.06.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
11.04.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 2-5 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-1
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
1.01 xG 0.55
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 0
389 Passes 222
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Sportivo Ameliano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Libertad had 61% of the ball to Sportivo Ameliano's 39%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.01 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Libertad and 0.67 for Sportivo Ameliano.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Libertad 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano in the Copa Sudamericana on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Libertad 54%, draw 25%, Sportivo Ameliano 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Libertad), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CSA More Copa Sudamericana
16 Aug 2024
01:00 Atletico Paranaense vs Belgrano Analysis →
03:30 Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro Analysis →