ADT 1-1 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 16 Aug 2024

ADT
1-1 HT 1-1
Melgar
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 37%
+18% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +18%
1.53/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.05
+38% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
286 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.7 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Melgar
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
0.37 xG 1.64
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
182 Passes 307
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Melgar Melgar 3-1 HT 1-0 ADT ADT PER
23.06.2023 Melgar Melgar 4-0 HT 2-0 ADT ADT PER
26.03.2023 ADT ADT 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
05.10.2022 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
13.05.2022 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 2-0 ADT ADT PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
1-1
AWAY Melgar
1.08 xG 0.86
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
304 Passes 215
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ADT vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADT and Melgar couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was ADT at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, ADT had 58% of the ball to Melgar's 42%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.08 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for ADT and 2.20 for Melgar.

What was the final score of ADT vs Melgar?

ADT 1-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADT win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split ADT 41%, draw 28%, Melgar 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ADT), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADT) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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