Varzim 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.01/2.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.21
+60% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Varzim Varzim 4-3 HT 3-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
11.02.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
08.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
25.08.2023 Varzim Varzim 3-0 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
1-0
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
50% Ball Possession 50%
5 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim nicked a narrow win over Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Varzim had 50% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 50%, shots finished 5-13.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Varzim had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Varzim and 1.25 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Varzim 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Varzim 29%, draw 28%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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