Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Varzim v Lusitania FC Lourosa — Team-Based Signals
Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Varzim
POR3
3-0
HT 1-0
Lusitania FC Lourosa
POR3
Varzim 4-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Actual Match Statistics
Varzim squeezed past Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-3. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Varzim had 44% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 56%, shots finished 9-13.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Varzim and 0.67 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.
What was the final score of Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?
Varzim 4-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?
Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Varzim 31%, draw 26%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 43%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.