Pero Pinheiro 1-2 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.34
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
55%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
29%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
16%
+1.4pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.5pp
55%
Away Win
62%
-6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pero Pinheiro EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 66%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.25/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+9% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pero Pinheiro
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Caldas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Caldas Caldas 4-1 HT 2-0 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro POR3
21.01.2024 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
08.10.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro POR3
10.09.2023 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pero Pinheiro
1-2
AWAY Caldas
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pero Pinheiro vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas nicked a narrow win over Pero Pinheiro 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Pero Pinheiro had 41% of the ball to Caldas's 59%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Caldas led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pero Pinheiro and 1.75 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Pero Pinheiro vs Caldas?

Pero Pinheiro 1-2 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pero Pinheiro vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Pero Pinheiro 17%, draw 28%, Caldas 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ BTTS Yes
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