Pero Pinheiro 1-2 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
35%
4.34
Away
44%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.07
Over 2.5
41%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
2.03
No
43%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
27%
X/X
17%
2/1
3%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.3pp
34%
Draw
20%
+14.8pp
44%
Away Win
66%
-22.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
45%
+11.5pp
43%
BTTS No
55%
-11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pero Pinheiro EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 71%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+25% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 454 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pero Pinheiro
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Caldas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
5 Yellow Cards 1
08.10.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro POR3
10.09.2023 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pero Pinheiro
1-2
AWAY Caldas
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pero Pinheiro vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas edged past Pero Pinheiro 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Pero Pinheiro had 43% of the ball to Caldas's 57%, shots finished 8-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pero Pinheiro had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pero Pinheiro and 0.50 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Pero Pinheiro vs Caldas?

Pero Pinheiro 1-2 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pero Pinheiro vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pero Pinheiro 21%, draw 34%, Caldas 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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