Caldas 4-1 Pero Pinheiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.33
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
71%
-11.7pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.2pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Pero Pinheiro EU Bookmakers 14%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.80/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/1.87
-2% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -62% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Pero Pinheiro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
21.01.2024 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
08.10.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro POR3
10.09.2023 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
4-1
AWAY Pero Pinheiro
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Pero Pinheiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas ran out comfortable winners over Pero Pinheiro 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Caldas had 42% of the ball to Pero Pinheiro's 58%, shots finished 12-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caldas and 1.00 for Pero Pinheiro.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Pero Pinheiro?

Caldas 4-1 Pero Pinheiro in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Pero Pinheiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Caldas 59%, draw 21%, Pero Pinheiro 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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