Varzim 0-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.34/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.82
+9% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
273 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Alverca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
17.02.2002 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR
23.09.2001 Alverca Alverca 4-2 HT 2-1 Varzim Varzim POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
0-1
AWAY Alverca
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca squeezed past Varzim 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Alverca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Varzim had 51% of the ball to Alverca's 49%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Varzim and 2.00 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Alverca?

Varzim 0-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Varzim 38%, draw 28%, Alverca 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Varzim) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Varzim) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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