SC Villa 4-2 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 16 Sep 2024

📅16/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.45
Draw
35%
3.64
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.38
Over 2.5
36%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
3.34
No
56%
1.28
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
12%
X/X
22%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
65%
-19.6pp
35%
Draw
24%
+10.4pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
69%
-4.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
31%
+4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
26%
+17.9pp
56%
BTTS No
74%
-17.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SC Villa EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.96/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/2.11
+0% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
298 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SC Villa
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 SC Villa SC Villa 2-1 HT 1-1 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
30.11.2021 Mbarara City Mbarara City 1-0 HT 1-0 SC Villa SC Villa UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SC Villa
4-2
AWAY Mbarara City
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SC Villa vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SC Villa saw off Mbarara City 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had SC Villa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, SC Villa had 55% of the ball to Mbarara City's 45%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for SC Villa and 1.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of SC Villa vs Mbarara City?

SC Villa 4-2 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SC Villa vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a SC Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split SC Villa 45%, draw 35%, Mbarara City 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SC Villa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SC Villa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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