Fakel 1-0 Ural — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup Regional League, 16 Oct 2025

Fakel
1-0 HT 0-0
Ural
📅16/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
32%
Draw
32%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.6pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Ural EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
243 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Ural
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.73 xG 1.07
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
206 Passes 277
64% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 31
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
31.08.2025 Ural Ural 2-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS1
12.05.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUS
17.09.2023 Ural Ural 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
12.11.2022 Ural Ural 2-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
12.08.2022 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUS
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Ural
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel nicked a narrow win over Ural 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; Fakel found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ural led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Fakel and 0.80 for Ural.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Ural?

Fakel 1-0 Ural in the Russia - Cup Regional League on 16/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Ural?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Fakel 35%, draw 32%, Ural 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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