Tusker 1-2 Police — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 16 Nov 2025

Tusker
1-2 HT 0-2
Police
📅16/11/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2025/2026

Tusker vs Police Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.57
Draw
39%
2.7
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
72%
Over 2.5
28%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.33
No
56%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
25%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
35%
-7.7pp
40%
Draw
34%
+6.0pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
39%
+5.4pp
56%
BTTS No
61%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tusker v Police — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Police EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.75/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.17
-21% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0

Tusker vs Police Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tusker
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Police
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Tusker Tusker 0-0 HT 0-0 Police Police KEN
29.09.2024 Police Police 1-1 HT 1-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
05.03.2022 Tusker Tusker 1-1 HT 1-1 Police Police KEN2
03.11.2021 Police Police 1-2 HT 1-2 Tusker Tusker KEN2
POST-MATCH Tusker vs Police
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Police squeezed past Tusker 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (28% / 40% / 33%) promised a tight game; Police found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Tusker had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tusker and 0.75 for Police.

What was the final score of Tusker vs Police?

Tusker 1-2 Police in the Kenya - Premier League on 16/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs Police?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tusker 28%, draw 40%, Police 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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