Police 1-1 Tusker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

Police
1-1 HT 1-0
Tusker
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2024/2025

Police vs Tusker Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
35%
Away Win
35%
-0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Police v Tusker — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Police EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tusker EU Bookmakers 39%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -49% / -49%
1.02/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+46% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Police vs Tusker Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Police
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Tusker
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.03.2022 Tusker Tusker 1-1 HT 1-1 Police Police KEN2
03.11.2021 Police Police 1-2 HT 1-2 Tusker Tusker KEN2
POST-MATCH Police vs Tusker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Police and Tusker shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tusker led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Police and 1.50 for Tusker.

What was the final score of Police vs Tusker?

Police 1-1 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Police vs Tusker?

Before kick-off our model rated a Police win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Police 37%, draw 28%, Tusker 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Police), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Police) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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