Porto 2-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Dec 2024

📅16/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.18
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
11%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.27
No
57%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.65
6+ Goals
11%
6.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.33
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
4%
32.5
X/1
25%
3.37
X/2
4%
32.0
X/X
10%
9.8
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
3%
26.0
2/X
4%
31.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
80%
-8.3pp
18%
Draw
14%
+3.6pp
11%
Away Win
6%
+4.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.51/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.17
-1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +4%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
459 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 72%
38.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.4
21.8 Crosses 11.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.28 xG 0.70
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 8
426 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
15.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-0
AWAY Estrela
1.05 xG 0.15
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 4
446 Passes 164
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 6
27 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto got the better of Estrela 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Porto had 69% of the ball to Estrela's 31%, shots finished 12-3, expected goals 1.05 to 0.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto and 0.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Porto vs Estrela?

Porto 2-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Porto 71%, draw 18%, Estrela 11%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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