Rio Ave 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Dec 2024

📅16/12/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
39%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
8%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.21
1/2
10%
26.0
1/X
4%
15.55
X/1
12%
8.85
X/2
18%
4.03
X/X
22%
4.56
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
11%
2.39
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+6.2pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.9pp
39%
Away Win
52%
-13.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 56%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
0.75/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.05
-16% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
19.4 Crosses 27.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.66 xG 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
318 Passes 384
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.05.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
23.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
14.05.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
07.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
13.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
27.09.2020 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
2-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.18 xG 2.64
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 2
227 Passes 459
69% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave and Vitoria Guimaraes couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 32% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rio Ave had 37% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 63%, shots finished 5-16, expected goals 0.18 to 2.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rio Ave and 0.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Rio Ave 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 29%, draw 32%, Vitoria Guimaraes 39%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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