Rio Ave 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.64
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.0
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
15%
6.25
X/2
12%
4.49
X/X
14%
4.06
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.16
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-3.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 46%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.35/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.08
+28% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
17.8 Crosses 20.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.78 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
318 Passes 385
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
14.05.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
07.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
13.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
27.09.2020 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
27.01.2020 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
2-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.31 xG 0.91
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 Passes 389
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Rio Ave made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rio Ave had 43% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 57%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.31 to 0.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vitoria Guimaraes.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rio Ave and 0.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Rio Ave 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 34%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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