Porto 2-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.27
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
13%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.77
2-3 Goals
43%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
9%
7.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
27.5
X/1
21%
3.3
X/2
3%
25.5
X/X
9%
8.6
2/1
11%
24.15
2/2
6%
20.4
2/X
5%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
75%
-5.9pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.8pp
13%
Away Win
9%
+4.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.1pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.40/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.39
+8% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -16%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
455 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
21.6 Crosses 12.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.38 xG 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 10
272 Passes 302
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 28
5 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-0
AWAY Estrela
2.19 xG 0.23
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
580 Passes 230
91% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto beat Estrela 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Porto had 69% of the ball to Estrela's 31%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.19 to 0.23.

What was the final score of Porto vs Estrela?

Porto 2-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Porto 69%, draw 18%, Estrela 13%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
17 Feb 2024
18:30 Chaves vs Boavista Analysis →
21:00 Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes Analysis →