Portimonense 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

Portimonense
1-1 HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 31% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.95
1/2
10%
25.5
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
10%
7.56
X/2
13%
4.14
X/X
9%
4.47
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
23%
2.58
2/X
9%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portimonense v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 53%
-18% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.61/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.82
-28% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +22%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
20.1 Crosses 23.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.14 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
294 Passes 282
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
11.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
21.08.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 2-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
17.01.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
08.08.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
09.04.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 3-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Portimonense 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
1-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.28 xG 1.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
287 Passes 310
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 24
33 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense and Vitoria Guimaraes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Portimonense had 49% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 51%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.28 to 1.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Portimonense and 0.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Portimonense 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 27%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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