Winterthur 1-4 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 16 Dec 2025

Winterthur
1-4 HT 1-3
Thun
📅16/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Winterthur vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.75
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
56%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.43
Over 2.5
63%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.53
No
37%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
15%
6.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.69
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.65
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1
6%
9.64
X/2
13%
4.56
X/X
9%
6.51
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
33%
2.15
2/X
6%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.65 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
23%
-0.1pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.3pp
56%
Away Win
55%
+1.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.2pp
63%
BTTS Yes
61%
+2.0pp
37%
BTTS No
39%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Winterthur v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 59%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.03/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.50/2.44
-18% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / -58%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
252 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 41.0
15.4 Crosses 38.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Winterthur vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Thun
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 2.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
397 Passes 262
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 33
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2025 Thun Thun 3-0 HT 2-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
06.05.2022 Winterthur Winterthur 2-2 HT 1-2 Thun Thun İSV2
18.02.2022 Thun Thun 2-4 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV2
15.10.2021 Thun Thun 0-2 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV2
20.08.2021 Winterthur Winterthur 3-0 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV2
19.04.2021 Winterthur Winterthur 1-2 HT 0-2 Thun Thun İSV2

Winterthur 1-4 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
1-4
AWAY Thun
0.43 xG 2.72
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 27
1 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 5
199 Passes 357
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 43
14 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun swept aside Winterthur 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Winterthur had 41% of the ball to Thun's 59%, shots finished 6-27, expected goals 0.43 to 2.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Winterthur had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Winterthur and 1.50 for Thun.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Thun?

Winterthur 1-4 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 16/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 23%, draw 21%, Thun 56%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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