Beitar Jerusalem 1-2 Maccabi Bnei Raina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 17 Jan 2024

📅17/01/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.34
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.3
6+ Goals
9%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 34% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
48%
-12.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+9.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.1pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beitar Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Maccabi Bnei Raina EU Bookmakers 30%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
1.63/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.08
+16% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
17.8 Crosses 14.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beitar Jerusalem
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.51 xG 0.47
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
425 Passes 253
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina 2-1 HT 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem Beitar Jerusalem İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beitar Jerusalem
1-2
AWAY Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.46 xG 1.93
65% Ball Possession 35%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
503 Passes 224
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Bnei Raina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maccabi Bnei Raina nicked a narrow win over Beitar Jerusalem 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Maccabi Bnei Raina made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Beitar Jerusalem had 65% of the ball to Maccabi Bnei Raina's 35%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.46 to 1.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Maccabi Bnei Raina's control.

What was the final score of Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Bnei Raina?

Beitar Jerusalem 1-2 Maccabi Bnei Raina in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Bnei Raina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Beitar Jerusalem 36%, draw 28%, Maccabi Bnei Raina 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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