Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-2 Ashdod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 17 Jan 2024

📅17/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.8
Over 2.5
38%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
1.81
No
68%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.85
2-3 Goals
36%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
3.79
6+ Goals
6%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 42% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
35%
+10.1pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.5pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.8pp
32%
BTTS Yes
51%
-19.2pp
68%
BTTS No
49%
+19.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maccabi Petah Tikva EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashdod EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.49/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.28
-41% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
8.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
8.1 Crosses 9.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maccabi Petah Tikva
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Ashdod
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.56 xG 1.59
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
312 Passes 297
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 1-1 HT 0-0 Maccabi Petah Tikva Maccabi Petah Tikva İSR
01.08.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 1-1 HT 1-0 Maccabi Petah Tikva Maccabi Petah Tikva İSRTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maccabi Petah Tikva
1-2
AWAY Ashdod
2.05 xG 2.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
267 Passes 267
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ashdod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ashdod edged past Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Maccabi Petah Tikva at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (68%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maccabi Petah Tikva had 50% of the ball to Ashdod's 50%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 2.05 to 2.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 1.00 for Ashdod.

What was the final score of Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ashdod?

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-2 Ashdod in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ashdod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maccabi Petah Tikva win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Maccabi Petah Tikva 45%, draw 22%, Ashdod 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maccabi Petah Tikva) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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