Almere City 1-2 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 17 Jan 2024

Almere City
1-2 HT 0-2
Fortuna Sittard
📅17/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2023/2024

Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
45%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.71
1/2
4%
28.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
9%
5.51
X/2 EV+ ✗
25%
5.45
X/X
13%
4.61
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.65
2/X
4%
13.05
Value flag · X/2 at 5.45 — our 25% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
37%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
45%
Away Win
36%
+8.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 40%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.00/2.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.19/1.65
-100% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
– Crosses 24.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
342 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-1 HT 2-1 Almere City Almere City HOL
30.03.2018 Almere City Almere City 1-4 HT 0-4 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2
01.09.2017 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-1 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
27.01.2017 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2
19.08.2016 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-1 HT 1-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
29.01.2016 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2

Almere City 1-2 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-2
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
0.60 xG 1.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
270 Passes 218
64% Pass Accuracy 59%
27 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard edged past Almere City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Almere City had 54% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 46%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.60 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Almere City and 1.67 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard?

Almere City 1-2 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Almere City 30%, draw 25%, Fortuna Sittard 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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