PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 17 Jan 2024

PSV Eindhoven
3-1 HT 1-0
Twente
📅17/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2023/2024

PSV Eindhoven vs Twente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.78
2-3 Goals
38%
2.04
4-5 Goals
30%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.65
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.8
X/1
14%
3.78
X/2
7%
14.55
X/X
8%
7.6
2/1
6%
19.5
2/2
9%
10.05
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
17.95
Value flag · 2/X at 17.95 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.2pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+6.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV Eindhoven v Twente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 18%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +64% / +64%
2.63/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-10% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / –
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

PSV Eindhoven vs Twente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Twente
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.13 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
433 Passes 309
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Twente Twente 0-3 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
26.02.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Twente Twente HOL
03.09.2022 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 2-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
02.04.2022 Twente Twente 3-3 HT 3-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
30.10.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-2 HT 2-2 Twente Twente HOL
06.02.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 2-0 Twente Twente HOL

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Twente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
3-1
AWAY Twente
1.54 xG 1.21
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
437 Passes 403
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven beat Twente 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 51% of the ball to Twente's 49%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.54 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.33 for Twente.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Twente?

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Twente in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 57%, draw 21%, Twente 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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