NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 17 Jan 2024

NEC Nijmegen
2-1 HT 1-0
Go Ahead Eagles
📅17/01/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
44%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.54
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.21
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 29% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
3.34
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
14%
5.57
X/2
16%
5.87
X/X
15%
5.41
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
17%
3.61
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
39%
-10.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
44%
Away Win
36%
+7.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.6pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 39%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.49/2.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.83
+3% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +136%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.1
21.1 Crosses 24.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 Passes 331
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
05.02.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-3 HT 1-2 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
08.05.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
10.02.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-2 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOK
19.12.2021 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 0-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-1
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
1.30 xG 0.85
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 14
429 Passes 337
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 35
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen edged past Go Ahead Eagles 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Go Ahead Eagles at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 53% of the ball to Go Ahead Eagles's 47%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.30 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.17 for Go Ahead Eagles.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Before kick-off our model rated an Go Ahead Eagles win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 29%, draw 27%, Go Ahead Eagles 44%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles) ✗ Under 2.5
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