Roma 3-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 Jan 2025

Roma
3-1 HT 1-1
Genoa
📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
26%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.5
X/1
19%
3.75
X/2
10%
12.55
X/X
11%
5.47
2/1
8%
24.3
2/2
7%
11.2
2/X
6%
20.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-7.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 18%
+5% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +19%
1.97/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.34
+21% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +42%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
19.3 Crosses 14.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Genoa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 0.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
425 Passes 280
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
19.05.2024 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
28.09.2023 Genoa Genoa 4-1 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
12.01.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTK
05.02.2022 Roma Roma 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
21.11.2021 Genoa Genoa 0-2 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
3-1
AWAY Genoa
1.57 xG 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
453 Passes 384
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roma vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma got the better of Genoa 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Roma had 53% of the ball to Genoa's 47%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.57 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Roma and 0.83 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Roma vs Genoa?

Roma 3-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Roma 55%, draw 23%, Genoa 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✗ BTTS No
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