Western United 3-1 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 17 Jan 2025

Western United
3-1 HT 2-0
Newcastle Jets
📅17/01/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Western United vs Newcastle Jets Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.16
2-3 Goals
46%
1.97
4-5 Goals
24%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.6
X/1
19%
4.52
X/2
7%
9.85
X/X
10%
6.44
2/1
5%
19.25
2/2
12%
6.84
2/X
5%
14.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-11.6pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+7.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.4pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Western United v Newcastle Jets — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.61/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.73
-27% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 80%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
23.8 Crosses 17.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Western United vs Newcastle Jets Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 1.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
383 Passes 372
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.02.2024 Western United Western United 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
30.12.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-0 HT 2-0 Western United Western United AVUS
11.11.2023 Western United Western United 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
25.02.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 1-2 Western United Western United AVUS
15.01.2023 Western United Western United 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
04.05.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-1 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS

Western United 3-1 Newcastle Jets — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
3-1
AWAY Newcastle Jets
2.03 xG 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 2
428 Passes 375
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
43 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Western United vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United saw off Newcastle Jets 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Western United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Western United had 53% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 47%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.03 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Western United and 1.00 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Western United vs Newcastle Jets?

Western United 3-1 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Western United 45%, draw 26%, Newcastle Jets 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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