Karabağ 3-2 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.16
Draw
25%
7.13
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
82%
-20.6pp
25%
Draw
11%
+13.7pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+6.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
2.78/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.39
+33% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Shamakhi
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.12.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.10.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
02.04.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
31.01.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
30.10.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-4 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.08.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ edged past Shamakhi 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Karabağ and 0.17 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Shamakhi?

Karabağ 3-2 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 61%, draw 25%, Shamakhi 14%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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