Benfica 4-0 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.28
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.4
2-3 Goals
44%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
23.0
X/1
17%
3.66
X/2
6%
20.55
X/X
8%
8.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
22.55
2/2
7%
18.35
2/X
5%
27.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 13% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
74%
-10.0pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.8pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+8.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.71/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.15
+22% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +1%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
444 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
37.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
22.9 Crosses 12.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Famalicao
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.58 xG 0.77
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
502 Passes 255
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 2-0 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
05.05.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 2-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
29.12.2023 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
25.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POK
04.03.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
10.09.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4-0
AWAY Famalicao
4.11 xG 0.16
58% Ball Possession 42%
22 Total Shots 1
12 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 2
435 Passes 285
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica swept aside Famalicao 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 58% of the ball to Famalicao's 42%, shots finished 22-1, expected goals 4.11 to 0.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Famalicao?

Benfica 4-0 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Benfica 64%, draw 18%, Famalicao 18%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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