Hatayspor 1-1 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
6.35
Draw
17%
4.95
Away Pick
59%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.63
Over
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.76
2-3
44%
2.04
4-5
26%
2.51
6+
9%
5.48
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.76 — our 21% vs market 12.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
13.15
1/2
8%
19.1
1/X
5%
21.7
X/1
11%
17.0
X/2
22%
3.97
X/X
5%
8.59
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.52
2/X
7%
19.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Galatasaray win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
13%
+11.5pp
17%
Draw
17%
+0.3pp
59%
Away Win
70%
-11.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hatayspor The Market 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray The Market 75%
+44% / +44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +16%
1.23/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.10
+101% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +10%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 83%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.5
12.9 Crosses 21.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hatayspor
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Galatasaray
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.18 xG 2.44
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
197 Passes 420
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
02.04.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 1-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
11.11.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 2-1 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
13.01.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 4-0 HT 3-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
16.01.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 4-2 HT 1-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
23.08.2021 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hatayspor
1-1
AWAY Galatasaray
0.82 xG 3.52
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 26
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
225 Passes 378
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 54
12 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hatayspor vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hatayspor and Galatasaray couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Galatasaray carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hatayspor had 39% of the ball to Galatasaray's 61%, shots finished 8-26, expected goals 0.82 to 3.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hatayspor and 2.00 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Hatayspor vs Galatasaray?

Hatayspor 1-1 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hatayspor vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated an Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Hatayspor 24%, draw 17%, Galatasaray 59%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✗ Over 2.5
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