Guiseley 4-1 Morpeth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.1pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-1.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guiseley EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.70/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.71
-10% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guiseley
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Morpeth Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
26.09.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Guiseley Guiseley İNGNLP
03.12.2022 Guiseley Guiseley 1-0 HT 0-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
16.08.2022 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Guiseley Guiseley İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Guiseley vs Morpeth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guiseley cruised past Morpeth Town 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guiseley as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Guiseley had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guiseley and 0.67 for Morpeth Town.

What was the final score of Guiseley vs Morpeth Town?

Guiseley 4-1 Morpeth Town in the England - Non League Premier on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guiseley vs Morpeth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guiseley win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Guiseley 53%, draw 21%, Morpeth Town 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guiseley), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guiseley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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