Celta Vigo 1-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 Feb 2024

Celta Vigo
1-2 HT 0-1
Barcelona
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Celta Vigo vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
12%
9.87
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.45
1/2
9%
22.45
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
10%
7.69
X/2
22%
4.38
X/X
11%
5.16
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
14%
2.49
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
45%
Away Win
48%
-3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 52%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.21/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.05
-12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 82%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
19.9 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Celta Vigo vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Barcelona
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.11 xG 1.54
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
311 Passes 562
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
19 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 3-2 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
04.06.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-1 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
09.10.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
10.05.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 3-1 HT 2-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
06.11.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-3 HT 0-3 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
16.05.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1

Celta Vigo 1-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
1-2
AWAY Barcelona
0.75 xG 1.53
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
236 Passes 578
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona squeezed past Celta Vigo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 34% of the ball to Barcelona's 66%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.75 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Celta Vigo and 2.00 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Barcelona?

Celta Vigo 1-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 30%, draw 26%, Barcelona 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5
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