Napoli 1-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 Feb 2024

Napoli
1-1 HT 0-0
Genoa
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Napoli vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 33% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
17%
3.84
X/2
6%
9.28
X/X
19%
4.49
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
13%
7.67
2/X
5%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Napoli win — 44%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.5pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napoli v Genoa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.47/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.39
+1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
18.0 Crosses 14.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Napoli vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Genoa
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 0.83
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
540 Passes 272
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Genoa Genoa 2-2 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
15.05.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
29.08.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
06.02.2021 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 2-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
27.09.2020 Napoli Napoli 6-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
08.07.2020 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA

Napoli 1-1 Genoa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1-1
AWAY Genoa
1.37 xG 0.27
74% Ball Possession 26%
25 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
619 Passes 169
90% Pass Accuracy 71%
41 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli and Genoa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Napoli had 74% of the ball to Genoa's 26%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 1.37 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Genoa?

Napoli 1-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Napoli 44%, draw 31%, Genoa 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
17 Feb 2024
20:00 Hellas Verona vs Juventus Analysis →
22:45 Atalanta vs Sassuolo Analysis →