Wolfsberger AC 4-1 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 31% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.65
X/1
18%
3.98
X/2
13%
8.41
X/X
13%
5.11
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
11%
6.44
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsberger AC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +12%
1.95/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.64
+0% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 67%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.5 Crosses 15.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsberger AC
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.76 xG 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
310 Passes 289
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 2-3 HT 0-1 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
27.05.2023 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 2-0 HT 2-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
07.04.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 4-0 HT 3-0 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
11.02.2023 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 1-2 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
28.08.2022 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-3 HT 1-1 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
21.11.2021 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 5-1 HT 2-1 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsberger AC
4-1
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
2.55 xG 0.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
413 Passes 264
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
12 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolfsberger AC vs Swarovski Tirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsberger AC cruised past Swarovski Tirol 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Wolfsberger AC as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Wolfsberger AC had 57% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 43%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.55 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wolfsberger AC and 2.33 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Wolfsberger AC vs Swarovski Tirol?

Wolfsberger AC 4-1 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsberger AC vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsberger AC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Wolfsberger AC 45%, draw 26%, Swarovski Tirol 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolfsberger AC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wolfsberger AC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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