Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.64
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.49 — our 35% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-3.9pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.0pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-1.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.6pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 24%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.69/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/2.89
+36% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -51%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 74%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
17.8 Crosses 16.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Orlando Pirates
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.99 xG 0.54
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
372 Passes 244
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
07.10.2023 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
20.09.2023 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
04.02.2023 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
30.12.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-0 HT 1-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
22.10.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-3 HT 0-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAF8K
01.10.2022 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-1
AWAY Orlando Pirates
1.19 xG 1.04
69% Ball Possession 31%
7 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
389 Passes 124
82% Pass Accuracy 61%
15 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 12
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns and Orlando Pirates shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Mamelodi Sundowns at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 69% of the ball to Orlando Pirates's 31%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 1.19 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.50 for Orlando Pirates.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates in the South Afrika - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 50%, draw 30%, Orlando Pirates 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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