Leeds United 2-1 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 17 Feb 2025

Leeds United
2-1 HT 0-1
Sunderland
📅17/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Leeds United vs Sunderland Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.75
X/1
22%
3.95
X/2
8%
11.05
X/X
10%
5.33
2/1
6%
23.4
2/2
8%
9.37
2/X
8%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Sunderland — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.85/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.38
+6% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +63%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
21.4 Crosses 14.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Leeds United vs Sunderland Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sunderland
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 1.11
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
399 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.10.2024 Sunderland Sunderland 2-2 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
09.04.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 0-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
12.12.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
07.04.2018 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
19.08.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 0-2 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
04.01.2015 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United FAK

Leeds United 2-1 Sunderland — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
2-1
AWAY Sunderland
2.05 xG 0.52
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 0
554 Passes 251
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 7
37 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United nicked a narrow win over Sunderland 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Leeds United had 66% of the ball to Sunderland's 34%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 2.05 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leeds United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sunderland led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leeds United and 0.83 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Leeds United 2-1 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 56%, draw 24%, Sunderland 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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