South Melbourne 3-1 Melbourne Knights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 17 Feb 2025

📅17/02/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 25%
+10% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -15%
1.58/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.56/2.19
+1% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 17.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Knights
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
252 Passes 306
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
08.02.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
02.06.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 1-2 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
06.03.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
03.06.2022 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 2-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.03.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne beat Melbourne Knights 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for South Melbourne and 0.67 for Melbourne Knights.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights?

South Melbourne 3-1 Melbourne Knights in the Australia - National Premier League on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 48%, draw 26%, Melbourne Knights 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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