Melbourne Knights 0-1 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.13
Draw
18%
3.94
Away
60%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
Over 2.5
64%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
12%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
24%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
21%
+1.1pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.1pp
60%
Away Win
57%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 62%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +14%
1.04/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/0.78
-15% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.2 Crosses 22.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Knights
2W-0D-4L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
306 Passes 252
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.02.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
02.06.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 1-2 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
06.03.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
03.06.2022 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 2-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.03.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
07.05.2021 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 1-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Melbourne Knights vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne nicked a narrow win over Melbourne Knights 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Melbourne Knights and 1.33 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Melbourne Knights vs South Melbourne?

Melbourne Knights 0-1 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Knights vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Knights 22%, draw 18%, South Melbourne 60%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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