Mbarara City vs UPDF Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mbarara City v UPDF — Team-Based Signals
Mbarara City vs UPDF Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Mbarara City
UGA
Mbarara City 0-1 UPDF — Actual Match Statistics
UPDF squeezed past Mbarara City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Mbarara City at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (66%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Mbarara City had 50% of the ball to UPDF's 50%, shots finished 7-7.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, UPDF led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mbarara City and 1.00 for UPDF.
What was the final score of Mbarara City vs UPDF?
Mbarara City 0-1 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs UPDF?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mbarara City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 42%, draw 27%, UPDF 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mbarara City) went the other way.