Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 17 Feb 2026

Benfica
0 - 1 HT 0 - 0
Real Madrid
📅17/02/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Champions League – 2025/2026

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.18
Over
59%
1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
19%
4.18
2-3
45%
1.85
4-5
28%
2.91
6+
8%
8.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.45
1/2
3%
22.9
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
11%
6.85
X/2
15%
5.31
X/X
15%
5.31
2/1
2%
28.5
2/2
25%
2.99
2/X
5%
12.4
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Benfica v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Benfica The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 46%
Strong Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Great
1.64 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.82
1.44 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.98
Great Attack Strength Strong
Average Defense Strength Strong
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
21 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30
8 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2

Benfica vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Madrid
4.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
3.01 xG 1.50
33% Ball Possession 67%
22 Total Shots 16
12 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
227 Passes 553
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
47 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
28.01.2026 Benfica Benfica 4-2 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
27.07.2012 Benfica Benfica 5-2 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ

Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
0 - 1
AWAY Real Madrid
0.47 xG 0.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
355 Passes 549
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Benfica vs Real Madrid
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Benfica 1-0 away from home. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

By the numbers, Real Madrid saw more of the ball, 58% to 42%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.47 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 2 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 4.50 a game for Benfica against 2.00 for Real Madrid.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Result & Final Score

Benfica 0 - 1 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 17/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Benfica 31%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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