Jablonec 1-2 Viktoria Plzen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jablonec EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Viktoria Plzen EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +16%
1.22/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.90
+3% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jablonec
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Viktoria Plzen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.10.2023 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 3-2 HT 2-2 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
08.04.2023 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 3-2 HT 1-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
16.10.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 0-3 HT 0-1 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
19.03.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 0-0 HT 0-0 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
24.10.2021 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 5-0 HT 2-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
17.04.2021 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 1-1 HT 1-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jablonec
1-2
AWAY Viktoria Plzen
0.55 xG 1.89
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
197 Passes 290
65% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Viktoria Plzen squeezed past Jablonec 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Viktoria Plzen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Jablonec had 44% of the ball to Viktoria Plzen's 56%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.55 to 1.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Viktoria Plzen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viktoria Plzen led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Jablonec and 2.50 for Viktoria Plzen.

What was the final score of Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen?

Jablonec 1-2 Viktoria Plzen in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Viktoria Plzen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Jablonec 29%, draw 30%, Viktoria Plzen 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Viktoria Plzen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Viktoria Plzen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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