Gernika 1-4 Tudelano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.52
Over
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
42%
4-5
17%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.5pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.1pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gernika The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tudelano The Market 34%
+0% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.36/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.00
+16% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
316 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 20.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gernika
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Tudelano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Tudelano Tudelano 5-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
05.03.2023 Gernika Gernika 2-0 HT 1-0 Tudelano Tudelano İS4
16.10.2022 Tudelano Tudelano 3-2 HT 2-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gernika
1-4
AWAY Tudelano
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gernika vs Tudelano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tudelano swept aside Gernika 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Tudelano made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gernika had 47% of the ball to Tudelano's 53%, shots finished 7-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tudelano led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gernika and 2.67 for Tudelano.

What was the final score of Gernika vs Tudelano?

Gernika 1-4 Tudelano in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gernika vs Tudelano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gernika win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gernika 37%, draw 29%, Tudelano 33%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gernika) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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