Estepona 4-1 Velez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.48
Over 2.5
47%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.2pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
64%
-11.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
36%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estepona EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez EU Bookmakers 19%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -14%
1.60/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/2.11
-8% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -31%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
340 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estepona
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Velez
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
04.11.2023 Velez Velez 1-1 HT 1-1 Estepona Estepona İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estepona
4-1
AWAY Velez
72% Ball Possession 28%
19 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estepona vs Velez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estepona ran out comfortable winners over Velez 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Estepona as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estepona had 72% of the ball to Velez's 28%, shots finished 19-4.

What was the final score of Estepona vs Velez?

Estepona 4-1 Velez in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estepona vs Velez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estepona win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Estepona 53%, draw 21%, Velez 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estepona) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estepona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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