Montijo 1-2 UD San Fernando — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.44
Over 2.5
35%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.0pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.9pp
35%
Away Win
35%
-0.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
66%
-0.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
34%
+0.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.7pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montijo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY UD San Fernando EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-13% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montijo
3W-0D-0L
AWAY UD San Fernando
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
05.11.2023 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 0-2 HT 0-0 Montijo Montijo İS4
30.01.2022 Montijo Montijo 2-0 HT 0-0 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando İS4
12.09.2021 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 1-2 HT 0-1 Montijo Montijo İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montijo
1-2
AWAY UD San Fernando
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Montijo vs UD San Fernando
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD San Fernando nicked a narrow win over Montijo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; UD San Fernando found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montijo had 51% of the ball to UD San Fernando's 49%, shots finished 14-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Montijo had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Montijo and 0.33 for UD San Fernando.

What was the final score of Montijo vs UD San Fernando?

Montijo 1-2 UD San Fernando in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montijo vs UD San Fernando?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montijo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Montijo 38%, draw 27%, UD San Fernando 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montijo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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