Saguntino 2-1 Penya Independent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+6.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.2pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saguntino EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Penya Independent EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.96/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/0.99
-31% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
306 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 61%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saguntino
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Penya Independent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
4 Corners 1
05.11.2023 Penya Independent 0-1 HT 0-1 Saguntino Saguntino İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saguntino
2-1
AWAY Penya Independent
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Saguntino vs Penya Independent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saguntino nicked a narrow win over Penya Independent 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Saguntino as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Saguntino had 58% of the ball to Penya Independent's 42%, shots finished 8-8.

What was the final score of Saguntino vs Penya Independent?

Saguntino 2-1 Penya Independent in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saguntino vs Penya Independent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saguntino win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Saguntino 44%, draw 26%, Penya Independent 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saguntino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saguntino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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