Hellas Verona 1-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.71
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
12%
15.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.92
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.8
X/1
11%
10.8
X/2
14%
3.74
X/X
8%
4.96
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.05
2/X
8%
15.8
Value flag · 1/X at 16.8 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Milan win — 46%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-11.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 62%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
0.88/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.12
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -19%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
267 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 83%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
16.3 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hellas Verona
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Milan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.19 xG 1.81
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
247 Passes 368
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
04.06.2023 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
16.10.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
08.05.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-3 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
16.10.2021 Milan Milan 3-2 HT 0-2 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
07.03.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hellas Verona
1-3
AWAY Milan
0.54 xG 2.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
288 Passes 395
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 29
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hellas Verona vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan got the better of Hellas Verona 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hellas Verona had 45% of the ball to Milan's 55%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 0.54 to 2.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hellas Verona and 2.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Milan?

Hellas Verona 1-3 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hellas Verona vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 29%, draw 26%, Milan 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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