Roma 1-0 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.73
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
18.85
X/1
16%
3.5
X/2
8%
14.3
X/X
7%
6.09
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
8%
11.85
2/X
7%
19.8
Value flag · 1/X at 18.85 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Roma win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.4pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.5pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +1%
1.96/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.90
+18% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.0 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sassuolo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.76 xG 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
393 Passes 392
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.12.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
12.03.2023 Roma Roma 3-4 HT 1-3 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
09.11.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
13.02.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
12.09.2021 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
03.04.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-0
AWAY Sassuolo
0.70 xG 0.49
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
552 Passes 285
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roma vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma squeezed past Sassuolo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Roma had 63% of the ball to Sassuolo's 37%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.70 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Roma and 1.83 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Roma vs Sassuolo?

Roma 1-0 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Roma 55%, draw 24%, Sassuolo 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Over 2.5
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