Atletico Tucuman 2-2 Independiente Rivadavia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.68
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.38
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 39% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
20%
3.9
X/2
9%
9.18
X/X
18%
4.24
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
10%
7.77
2/X
7%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-10.0pp
33%
Draw
27%
+6.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.6pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Tucuman EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Rivadavia EU Bookmakers 23%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.15/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.38
-15% / +98% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
21.6 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Tucuman
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Independiente Rivadavia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
07.09.2015 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia 1-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJPBN
30.08.2014 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Tucuman
2-2
AWAY Independiente Rivadavia
1.64 xG 0.13
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
232 Passes 221
71% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente Rivadavia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Tucuman and Independiente Rivadavia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Tucuman at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Tucuman had 49% of the ball to Independiente Rivadavia's 51%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.64 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atletico Tucuman had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.50 for Independiente Rivadavia.

What was the final score of Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente Rivadavia?

Atletico Tucuman 2-2 Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentina - Premier League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente Rivadavia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Tucuman win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Tucuman 43%, draw 33%, Independiente Rivadavia 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Tucuman) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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