Hebar 1918 1-0 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
35%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.59
Over 2.5
49%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+6.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-6.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.19/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.78
+8% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +42%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hebar 1918
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 3-1 HT 1-0 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
22.04.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 0-1 HT 0-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hebar 1918
1-0
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Hebar 1918 vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hebar 1918 edged past Arda Kardzhali 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Hebar 1918 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hebar 1918 had 45% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 55%, shots finished 5-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hebar 1918 and 2.00 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Hebar 1918 vs Arda Kardzhali?

Hebar 1918 1-0 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hebar 1918 vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hebar 1918 win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Hebar 1918 36%, draw 29%, Arda Kardzhali 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hebar 1918), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hebar 1918) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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