Heerenveen 2-3 Feyenoord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Mar 2024

Heerenveen
2-3 HT 1-1
Feyenoord
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
52%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.82
No
42%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.42
2-3 Goals
44%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
10.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
21.0
1/X
8%
18.3
X/1
7%
13.8
X/2
20%
3.68
X/X
11%
6.77
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.72
2/X
7%
17.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.0 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+6.7pp
26%
Draw
19%
+6.3pp
53%
Away Win
66%
-12.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.1pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v Feyenoord — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Feyenoord EU Bookmakers 70%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +13%
1.06/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/0.96
-9% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -5%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 82%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.7
13.5 Crosses 20.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.2

Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Feyenoord
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.91 xG 2.08
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
326 Passes 497
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 35
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Feyenoord Feyenoord 6-1 HT 3-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
01.03.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-0 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOK
12.02.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 0-2 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL
13.08.2022 Feyenoord Feyenoord 0-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.12.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-3 HT 0-2 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL
22.09.2021 Feyenoord Feyenoord 3-1 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL

Heerenveen 2-3 Feyenoord — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
2-3
AWAY Feyenoord
0.56 xG 2.71
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
178 Passes 558
66% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 50
9 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Feyenoord squeezed past Heerenveen 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Feyenoord as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Heerenveen had 30% of the ball to Feyenoord's 70%, shots finished 8-22, expected goals 0.56 to 2.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Feyenoord's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Feyenoord led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heerenveen and 2.50 for Feyenoord.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?

Heerenveen 2-3 Feyenoord in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?

Before kick-off our model rated an Feyenoord win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 22%, draw 26%, Feyenoord 53%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Feyenoord), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Feyenoord) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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